Spring Comes Early To The Arctic

[ruckman101]

Anomalies are not contradictions.


neal

[turk]

Since we seem to be in the endeavor of predicting trends of the future we should be aware of, I'll add some of my own little observations here locally that would appear to show not anything new in this climate. Just two days ago (that would be about May 11) I was biking my seven mile commute and heard the distinct call of American Toads on the bike path. I saw one on the path in the early morning sun. I grabbed it and took some photographs of its yellow grey skin and reddish warts. Now exactly one and a half months ago I documented the mating season of Illinois Chorus frogs along the same path. I actually kept up with their calls for the interim. I still heard a few stragglers yesterday, but most are not calling anymore. They're done. Meanwhile we have had a late season of budding and flowering of trees. I would guestimate it's about two weeks or more later than normal. On the other hand, I've seen the flowering happen two or more weeks early in past springs. Right now it's still definitely spring here. Temps are in the 50's with fluctuations to the high eighties or rarely down to the 40's. I would not agree trends are changing the zone of plants in this area. There is not enough data to say that. Could be going colder in the future. All is about right.

[ruckman101]

It's kind of like a VW engine. You're driving along, and your oil-light comes on. You can keep going, telling yourself the light is on only because of a faulty wire, or immediately pull over and shut that engine down. If you keep driving, because you're convinced the data is wrong, eventually the engine will seize. Now the cost, time and effort to remedy the situation have dramatically increased compared to the cost, time and effort that would be needed if you had pulled over immediately and shut the engine off. Hey, it's your engine.

However, engine earth belongs to all of us.



neal

[turk]

A metaphor but how good? Why would we dismiss other evidence? Perhaps an agenda is in play where only one type of evidence is admissable.

[ruckman101]

What dismissal of other evidence? There it is, part of the data pool, noted variations from past modeled predictions.


neal

[turk]

What dismissal of other evidence? There it is, part of the data pool, noted variations from past modeled predictions.


neal

The difference between a 50% decline and an increase is a little more significant than a "noted variation". It seems more along the line of a complete change of direction, let's say a 90 degree turn. And acceleration is pretty much the opposite of deceleration. So, yeah, good you noted those. LOL.

[deschutestrout]

or the deceleration of sea rise by the Journal of Coastal Research,

I reserve the best for later.

So in other words...you're still searching for convincing, data-supported arguments?

Looks like I can still keep posting this

[Gypsie]

yawn...