Spring Comes Early To The Arctic

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Lanval
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Re: Spring Comes Early To The Arctic

Post by Lanval » Thu May 05, 2011 10:46 pm

RussellK wrote:
glasseye wrote:Thenk yew.
Pssst. Hey Peter. Did L called us sycophants?
Russell,

Not a'tall. There are some here though that are. Others persevere in trying to get across the notion that reasoned debate hinges upon reason, and not misconstruing facts to fit opinions.

Carry on....

L.

steve74baywin
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Re: Spring Comes Early To The Arctic

Post by steve74baywin » Fri May 06, 2011 7:10 am

George Carlin, wish I had paid him more attention when he was alive.

George Carlin - We are part of Nature
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94uJtUDl ... re=related

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turk
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Re: Spring Comes Early To The Arctic

Post by turk » Fri May 06, 2011 1:59 pm

@flyaway,

You got some general views off your chest but did not address the CO2 theory (it being the driver of a climate catastrophe). That is the specific topic I think we are referring to when we talk about political intervention. If you read my posts, you will see I clearly state government and politics need take the back-seat in deciding the "solution". Not the driver's seat. They only need to help in the search. Science, can only then discvover any answerss with convincing evidence, when and if that happens. Until then, government is just a supporter of real science, if possible, not ideological psuedo-science. Real science is removed from politics.

Take it easy,

Eric
A man said to the universe, "Sir I exist! "However," replied the universe, "the fact has not created in me a sense of obligation."

"Let me be perfectly clear" "[...] And so that was just a example of a new senator, you know, making what is a political vote as opposed to doing what was important for the country." Barry Sotero

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flyawaydesigns
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Re: Spring Comes Early To The Arctic

Post by flyawaydesigns » Fri May 06, 2011 3:57 pm

Here's then story on CO2 – the Greenhouse Gas.

Carbon dioxide is a natural thing. It is emitted in several ways - through the natural carbon cycle and through "human activities" like the burning of fossil fuels.

Natural sources of CO2 occur within the carbon cycle. Billions of tons of atmospheric CO2 are removed from the atmosphere by rivers, lakes, oceans by absorption and removed growing plants through photosynthesis (known as sinks) and are slowly emitted back into the atmosphere annually through natural processes (known as sources).

Until the 1700's, carbon dioxide emissions and removals from the entire carbon cycle were approximately balanced.

Since the Industrial Revolution in the 1700’s, "human activities", like the burning of oil, coal, gasoline, propane, butane and natural gas, N20 (Nitrous Oxide) and other fluorinated gases like CF4 (Carbon Tetrafluoride), CF6 (Carbon Hexafluoride) and SF6 (Sulfur Hexafluoride) have increased CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. [I personally know of these because for more than 20 years I designed many, many, many gas delivery systems and those are some of the gases used in the ever increasing semiconductor industry that are emitted directly to the atmosphere without treatment.]

To further exacerbate the situation, both naturally occurring "activities", like forest fires caused by lightning and volcanoes, and "human activities" like the deliberate slash and burn deforestation of the Amazonian tropical forest in central Brazil (of which, the burning areas are so vast, it can be seen from space). I take it you saw the 2 comparison photos of the ice sheet coverage in this thread??…..one was all white with snow/ice coverage and the other showed roughly 20% coverage remaining now. Well, that same warming effect melting the ice is also affecting the permafrost. That thawing permafrost is now releasing HUGE amounts of what was previously “permanently” trapped methane.

Couple that with worldwide rural and urban development (human activity due to population growth) - the conversion of what was forested, grasslands, pastures and farmland to create vast areas of buildings and pavement have simultaneously removed the most effective CO2 "sinks".

The carbon cycle that was stable till the 1700’s is now way out of balance. According to data I can find, we are currently over 35% “out of balance” and that number is rising at a faster and faster rate. The more CO2 is emitted, less of it can be absorbed.

That extra carbon dioxide is called the Greenhouse Gas. As the density of it builds up in the atmosphere, it traps the earth’s heat. That’s where the term “global warming” came from. The more correct term should be Climate Change. That tiny amount of heat buildup causes huge changes in the atmosphere.

The layman thinks what’s the big deal? So the atmosphere rises 1 degree Fahrenheit? That ain’t nothing. We'll just have a nicer spring and summer. But that amount of change over the entire planet is FUCKING HUGE!! WAY FUCKING HUGE. Bajillions and bajillions of BTUs of heat.

Here’s the BTU conversion data. We use it on a daily basis. You can do the math yourself. Lemme know how many bajillions of BTUs you calculate…… :geek:

A BTU (British Thermal Unit) is the amount of heat necessary to raise one pound of water by 1 degree Farenheit (F).
1 British Thermal Unit (BTU) = 1055 J (The Mechanical Equivalent of Heat Relation)
1 BTU = 252 cal = 1.055 kJ
1 Quad = 1015 BTU (World energy usage is about 300 Quads/year, US is about 100 Quads/year in 1996.)
1 therm = 100,000 BTU
1,000 kWh = 3.41 million BTU

That “tiny” 1 degree change can now drastically alter the weather patterns globally – forever. Dry places get drier or get more rain than before and wet places become deserts. More frequent and stronger tornadoes. Bigger and more powerful hurricanes. Deeper snow, or no snow at all. Exceptionally heavy rains and widespread flooding or prolonged droughts.

So that’s the story. Man IS causing the imbalance. And until we all see that, and make a conscious decision to make personal and global changes, the heat will increase, weather patterns will continue to change and get MORE extreme. Sure we may be able to adapt….we have before and maybe we do OK and maybe billions will die. But why should we be forced to go through that if we can divert our path now?? I practice "better to be safe than sorry" on a daily basis and so should you.

Capice??
C and R
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flyawaydesigns
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Re: Spring Comes Early To The Arctic

Post by flyawaydesigns » Fri May 06, 2011 4:06 pm

Here's then story on CO2 – the Greenhouse Gas.

Carbon dioxide is a natural thing. It is emitted in several ways - through the natural carbon cycle and through "human activities" like the burning of fossil fuels.

Natural sources of CO2 occur within the carbon cycle. Billions of tons of atmospheric CO2 are removed from the atmosphere by rivers, lakes, oceans by absorption and removed growing plants through photosynthesis (known as sinks) and are slowly emitted back into the atmosphere annually through natural processes (known as sources).

Until the 1700's, carbon dioxide emissions and removals from the entire carbon cycle were approximately balanced.

Since the Industrial Revolution in the 1700’s, "human activities", like the burning of oil, coal, gasoline, propane, butane and natural gas, N20 (Nitrous Oxide) and other fluorinated gases like CF4 (Carbon Tetrafluoride), CF6 (Carbon Hexafluoride) and SF6 (Sulfur Hexafluoride) have increased CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. [I personally know of these because for more than 20 years I designed many, many, many gas delivery systems and those are some of the gases used in the ever increasing semiconductor industry that are emitted directly to the atmosphere without treatment because they are considered to be inert. Gases are either inert, toxic or pyrophoric]

To further exacerbate the situation, both naturally occurring "activities", like forest fires caused by lightning and volcanoes, and "human activities" like the deliberate slash and burn deforestation of the Amazonian tropical forest in central Brazil (of which, the burning areas are so vast, it can be seen from space). I take it you saw the 2 comparison photos of the ice sheet coverage in this thread??…..one was all white with snow/ice coverage and the other showed roughly 20% coverage remaining now. Well, that same warming effect melting the ice is also affecting the permafrost. That thawing permafrost is now releasing HUGE amounts of what was previously “permanently” trapped methane.

Couple that with worldwide rural and urban development (human activity due to population growth) - the conversion of what was forested, grasslands, pastures and farmland to create vast areas of buildings and pavement have simultaneously removed the most effective CO2 "sinks".

The carbon cycle that was stable till the 1700’s is now way out of balance. According to data I can find, we are currently over 35% “out of balance” and that number is rising at a faster and faster rate. The more CO2 is emitted, less of it can be absorbed.

That extra carbon dioxide is called the Greenhouse Gas. As the density of it builds up in the atmosphere, it traps the earth’s heat. That’s where the term “global warming” came from. The more correct term should be Climate Change. That tiny amount of heat buildup causes huge changes in the atmosphere.

The layman thinks what’s the big deal? So the atmosphere rises 1 degree Fahrenheit? That ain’t nothing. We'll just have a nicer spring and summer. But that amount of change over the entire planet is FUCKING HUGE!! WAY FUCKING HUGE. Bajillions and bajillions of BTUs of heat.

Here’s the BTU conversion data. We use it on a daily basis. You can do the math yourself. Lemme know how many bajillions of BTUs you calculate…… :geek:

A BTU (British Thermal Unit) is the amount of heat necessary to raise one pound of water by 1 degree Farenheit (F).
1 British Thermal Unit (BTU) = 1055 J (The Mechanical Equivalent of Heat Relation)
1 BTU = 252 cal = 1.055 kJ
1 Quad = 1015 BTU (World energy usage is about 300 Quads/year, US is about 100 Quads/year in 1996.)
1 therm = 100,000 BTU
1,000 kWh = 3.41 million BTU

That “tiny” 1 degree change can now drastically alter the weather patterns globally – forever. Dry places get drier or get more rain than before and wet places become deserts. More frequent and stronger tornadoes. Bigger and more powerful hurricanes. Deeper snow, or no snow at all. Exceptionally heavy rains and widespread flooding or prolonged droughts.

So that’s the story. Man IS causing the imbalance. And until we all see that, and make a conscious decision to make personal and global changes, the heat will increase, weather patterns will continue to change and get MORE extreme. Sure we may be able to adapt….we have before and maybe we do OK and maybe billions will die. But why should we be forced to go through that if we can divert our path now?? I practice "better to be safe than sorry" on a daily basis and so should you.

Capice??
C and R
Handmade VW Bus Rear Tents
www.flyawaydesignsonline.com or flyawaydesigns@yahoo.com

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turk
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Re: Spring Comes Early To The Arctic

Post by turk » Fri May 06, 2011 4:10 pm

It's "capisce". But no, actually the evidence that the extra CO2 and other various related carbon cycle factors caused the warming is slight to none. It's true we add to it, but not necessarily that we caused the little observed warming. That's not the only factor in warming. So, you can't say that scientifically. It's an idea, but actually it should have warmed more than it has according to models based on that theory. That's all.
A man said to the universe, "Sir I exist! "However," replied the universe, "the fact has not created in me a sense of obligation."

"Let me be perfectly clear" "[...] And so that was just a example of a new senator, you know, making what is a political vote as opposed to doing what was important for the country." Barry Sotero

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Re: Spring Comes Early To The Arctic

Post by flyawaydesigns » Fri May 06, 2011 4:16 pm

My bad on the spelling.....
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turk
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Re: Spring Comes Early To The Arctic

Post by turk » Fri May 06, 2011 4:44 pm

No problem. It was prolly a typo, but since it's another language.. But my point basically is, government's role should be encouraging the science, not discouraging it. Are humans a factor on the planet? I think so. But narrowing causes down to carbon cycles is general at best. Government can't say what is happening with sufficient accuracy to evaluate limits. Nor can science yet. So, I say, let science operate untrammeled by government. This is where the political line gets crossed by science (or vise-versa). There will be opinions. But it isn't a fact, like the earth is a sphere. That we know. Among others.
A man said to the universe, "Sir I exist! "However," replied the universe, "the fact has not created in me a sense of obligation."

"Let me be perfectly clear" "[...] And so that was just a example of a new senator, you know, making what is a political vote as opposed to doing what was important for the country." Barry Sotero

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Re: Spring Comes Early To The Arctic

Post by ruckman101 » Fri May 06, 2011 4:49 pm

Who to believe, who to believe.

The overwhelming majority of the planet's scientists in the field of climate who share their data and have concluded, from the results of their scientific studies, that CO2 is a greenhouse gas that leads to climate change, and that human activity has added to the problem....

Or turk, who has concluded none of those scientists truly know, based on a sticking point of scientific philosophy.


neal
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turk
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Re: Spring Comes Early To The Arctic

Post by turk » Fri May 06, 2011 5:03 pm

The evidence is available to all. What evidence is there (of causation)? That is the bet we had which is grossly missed. The only evidence I was apprised of is some vague generalities about a "consensus". That's not what I asked for. You wanna talk lizards, phytoplankton, tornados, etc.. That's not evidence of the theory CO2 is causing some climate change, or any climate change, or especially catastrophic climate change. It simply is not. It's called "stuck on CO2". Pseudo-science. Semantic error # uno.
A man said to the universe, "Sir I exist! "However," replied the universe, "the fact has not created in me a sense of obligation."

"Let me be perfectly clear" "[...] And so that was just a example of a new senator, you know, making what is a political vote as opposed to doing what was important for the country." Barry Sotero

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flyawaydesigns
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Re: Spring Comes Early To The Arctic

Post by flyawaydesigns » Fri May 06, 2011 5:06 pm

Neal, thank you. That was eggzactly what I was going to reply with.

I believe that 98% of the "real" independent and government world scientists agree with us. The other 2% of the petrochemical and coal industry funded "faux" (or mercenary) scientists must be where his information comes from.

There are those who will say anything if you pay them enough money.

I learned this lesson years ago. I worked in northern Calif. for a well known civil engineering company. One of the things we did was write Environmental Impact Reports for all sorts of projects. On several projects, I would see the data coming in and I saw that the data showed the impacts were extremely severe, so much so, that we knew the project would never be permitted. But because the entity that wanted to do the project paid us to do the report, the facts got skewed and the report that was published no longer reflected what the data said. I actually watched other engineers above me shred the real data and create new data to say "everything's good". Money has a way of influencing truth.

Rick
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turk
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Re: Spring Comes Early To The Arctic

Post by turk » Fri May 06, 2011 5:09 pm

There is data. It's available to all. I don't think it's accurate, but even if it is, no smoking gun there. This is true. If you disagree, show the data that negates that. No smoking gun. Hot air? yes.
A man said to the universe, "Sir I exist! "However," replied the universe, "the fact has not created in me a sense of obligation."

"Let me be perfectly clear" "[...] And so that was just a example of a new senator, you know, making what is a political vote as opposed to doing what was important for the country." Barry Sotero

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flyawaydesigns
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Re: Spring Comes Early To The Arctic

Post by flyawaydesigns » Fri May 06, 2011 5:14 pm

No, you are the odd man out. Where is your data?? Post some links we can all see.

Then we'll retort....

Rick
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turk
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Re: Spring Comes Early To The Arctic

Post by turk » Fri May 06, 2011 5:20 pm

Of course. The null hypothesis. If it's not CO2, what is it? See what's wrong?
The practice of science involves formulating and testing hypotheses, assertions that are falsifiable using a test of observed data. The null hypothesis typically corresponds to a general or default position. For example, the null hypothesis might be that there is no relationship between two measured phenomena,[1] or that a potential treatment has no effect.[2] In most legal systems, the presumption that a defendant is innocent ("until proven guilty") can be interpreted as saying that the null hypothesis is that the defendant is innocent.
Here
is your link. Logic backwards. That's why the null hypothesis is not applicable to CO2 causing global warming.
A man said to the universe, "Sir I exist! "However," replied the universe, "the fact has not created in me a sense of obligation."

"Let me be perfectly clear" "[...] And so that was just a example of a new senator, you know, making what is a political vote as opposed to doing what was important for the country." Barry Sotero

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flyawaydesigns
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Re: Spring Comes Early To The Arctic

Post by flyawaydesigns » Fri May 06, 2011 5:31 pm

WTF is that??

That is NOT germane.

Post real links to real reports or data that says CO2 and the other greenhouse gases I named are NOT direct causes of "climate change" or "global warming". We wanna see where you get your data.

Not some lame wiki link like that.

You have a habit of just disagreeing with no back up. Time to put up!!

Rick
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